Courtesy of Dan Pearce, myfantastic.escape.com |
I thought the gloves would come
off around September between President Barack Obama and the Republican
presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. With so
much at stake riding on the outcome of this election, the pugilism from both
campaigns began in earnest in late spring.
For his part, Romney has done
nothing but attack Obama since the GOP primary season. In fact, all his Republican competitors
did. That’s what you do when you try to
unseat an incumbent. It’s perfectly
reasonable to do so and backed by the Supreme Court’s decision on the Citizens
United case, the Romney camp will have all the money in the world to inundate
the air waves with negative ads.
Team Obama is not pussy-footing
around either. They are well aware that
the unemployment numbers have been stubborn, and although the
Republican-controlled Congress failed to act on a jobs bill, the sluggish
recovery and high unemployment will be laid upon Obama’s doorstep that would
ordinarily spell disaster for an incumbent.
Remember, it’s the economy stupid!
Realizing that axiom, the Obama
folks have aimed their sights on Romney to make this a choice between not only
the direction of the country but also who is better suited to run it. Fortunately for Team Obama, he has a weak
opponent that few feel excited about and whose baggage from Bain Capital, his
record as governor of Massachusetts, and his head-scratching refusal to release
more than one year’s tax returns provides a terrific target to exploit.
Most national polls reveal a virtual
dead heat. There has been very little
variation in the national surveys and little movement is expected until the
conventions and ultimately the presidential debates. It seems that most people have already
solidified their choices; those who haven’t probably are not focused on the
election yet and many of those may not vote at all.
The country is so divided by red
and blue that national campaigns don’t exist anymore. Since the Electoral
College decides presidential contests, the election will be won not by national
totals but by a handful of venues that are termed “battleground” states. They include such prizes as Ohio, Florida,
Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire,
Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
You will see the candidates
spend more time and advertising dollars in those states and perhaps a few
others than anywhere else. They are the
targets, and that’s where this contest will be decided.
Obama can count on his
consistent likeability among voters, including the coveted “independent” segment
of the electorate. Those who have paid
attention can see the remnants of gridlock and divided government, and
depending if either he or Congress will be blamed for this inertia that alone
could decide the outcome.
With surprisingly so few partisans
showing the love for Romney, it has been clear from the outset that the
election will be defined as Obama vs. the anti-Obama. Romney’s negatives are too high at this stage
to explain why there is a dead heat. His
support is more about getting Obama out of office than getting Romney into it.
Obama is on shaky ground
now. The economy could falter,
setting off higher unemployment and stall the fragile recovery. It can even trigger another recession. The drought that is gripping much of the
nation most likely will have an impact on the economy including gas prices, but
when? Though he obviously should not be
blamed for this natural phenomenon, a faulty economy is his to own.
Moreover, economic
destabilization in European countries can affect ours—another factor beyond
anyone’s control.
Then there are international
tensions that could pop up between now and November which could affect voters’
preferences. Usually the population
rallies around a president during an international crisis. But those rules may not be in play anymore.Romney is banking on the Obama haters to propel his candidacy, and there are lots of them. The hatred towards the president began during the 2008 campaign and continued in earnest the night of his inauguration and it hasn’t subsided. Even the major victory in the war on terrorism—the killing of Osama bin Laden, once considered public enemy number one—failed to generate praise from the opposition.
Then there is “Obamacare”—the
defining piece of legislation that galvanized the Republican base and the Tea
Party. Unfortunately for Romney, this law
was patterned after his own Massachusetts version rendering him ineffective in
his criticism of it.
Romney is also saddled by his
experience at Bain, which is relevant since his business experience is used as the
rationale for unseating the president.
His refusal so far to release prior tax returns will likely turn off
swing voters as he will be perceived as hiding something. People don’t like that.
For the country in general, this
is a pivotal election. For LGBT folks in
particular, there is also much at stake.
Obama was successful on most of the large initiatives: he ended “Don’t
Ask, Don’t Tell,” ordered hospitals receiving federal funds to allow visitation
by members of same-sex couples, signed a comprehensive hate crimes bill into
law, publicly supported marriage equality, and appointed more LGBT individuals
to key positions than any previous president. And the Justice Department ceased defending the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in several court challenges.
Romney threatened to reverse
those victories. With a potential
control of both chambers going to Republicans, that could be accomplished more
easily. Keep that in mind.The remainder of the campaign will be a big-time brawl, so brace yourself for the ugliness that will ensue. The outcome, like an evenly matched prize fight, may not be clear until the final bell. We just can’t have judges deciding it—again.