Still reeling from consecutive
losses in the contest for the White House, the Republicans are setting
themselves up for a third consecutive defeat.
That dismal reality for the GOP has the face of Donald Trump all over
it. #hocopolitics
Donald Trump rails against 'political correctness' |
Back in August when Trump-mania started
to take hold, I opined how his candidacy would affect the rest
of the race up until the first votes for the caucuses and primaries are cast in
February 2016. Few thought that Trump
and his blustery showmanship will prevail and he would vanish like other
flavors-of-the-month have done previously.
I said then and I will repeat:
Trump is not going anywhere voluntarily unless he can get knocked off the
pedestal he has stood since he first announced his candidacy.
Political numbers guru Nate
Silver noted that only 25 percent of the country identify as Republicans while
Trump has garnered merely 25 percent of GOP voters (enough to currently top the
leader board). Silver’s inference is
that Trump is not making sufficient inroads to worry Dems in the general election. Should Trump be the nominee, he will muster
far more than the 25 percent currently supporting him as most Republicans will
galvanize behind him in the hope of defeating Hillary Clinton.The Republicans are indeed worried, however, and with good reason. This is due to the horrific possibility that Trump may end up being the party’s standard-bearer.
The so-called base is fed up
with the GOP that put forth John McCain whose inability to articulate a
solution to an economic crisis without threatening to bomb a country and Mitt
Romney whose opulence created a narrative that he is out of touch with ordinary
Americans. These nominees lost to an
African-American with little Senate experience, who had alleged ties to some questionable
figures and whose place of birth was constantly questioned. And they did so twice.
Republicans, especially in the
House and Senate, were so ticked at these outcomes that they would go way out
of the way to derail as much of President Obama’s agenda. Though many of these lame efforts, such as
repealing the Affordable Care Act over 40 times and shutting down the federal
government reflected the GOP’s petulance, Obama’s creativity and the use of
executive orders—a tactic that had been employed by presidents of both parties
in the past—enabled him to secure significant accomplishments for the country
and his legacy.
Following Romney’s defeat, the
Republican establishment performed an “autopsy” in an effort to end the
two-cycle presidential defeats. They
surmised that for the Republican Party to regain control of the federal
government, they will have to broaden their reach, recognize the changing
demographics and expand their base outside the tea party crowd.
To do so would mean the party
would have to woo African-Americans, Latinos and women and would, in the process,
gain much needed independent voters who comprise the fastest growing bloc. This would certainly serve the Republicans
well in swing states.
Not so fast: Donald Trump is
single-handedly undermining that effort in a big and loud way. Starting off with his assault on Mexicans as
rapists, his determination to build a “nice” wall at the Mexican government’s
expense and deport over 11 million undocumented immigrants, he turned off
Hispanics big time. Trump’s misogynous
verbal shots at Fox News reporter Megyn Kelly and his adolescent barb directed at
Carly Fiorina’s face certainly didn’t help with women.
Trump’s call for surveillance of
Syrian refugees and certain mosques and a national registry of Syrian refugees. Adding to that was his blatant lie that he
witnessed thousands of Muslims in Jersey City rejoicing at the attacks on 9/11.
This anti-Muslim rhetoric likely failed to win over independents.
Then there was the recent
incident in Birmingham, Ala. in which a
Black Lives Matter protester was roughed up and forcibly ejected from a Trump
rally and the candidate going on record supporting such actions. African-Americans thinking about joining the
GOP now? Highly unlikely.
With all these episodes and likely more on the way, the GOP establishment
is squirming big time. Trump’s
supporters who have kept him on top in the polls except for a brief love affair
with Dr. Carson, consist of the angry folks who adore Trump’s bullying style.
My guess is that most of his
supporters prefer that the U.S. be a Christian country consisting solely of
white, native-born, non-Hispanic, heterosexual, anti-refugee, gun-toting,
pro-life but at the same time pro-death penalty, misogynistic, climate change
deniers, and military hawks who either have not served in the armed forces or
would oppose a draft to force their sons and daughters into combat. They intently hate Obama and deny his record
of accomplishments. Trump answers their
bell.
The trouble is, the above
profile could match most of the GOP contenders’ core supporters. It explains, perhaps, that Trump’s rivals are
loath to criticize him forcefully lest they be on the receiving end of his
flame-throwing. He won’t hesitate to
unleash his venom. Ask Ben Carson.
This approach is effective for
primaries but suicidal for the general.
Democrats should use Trump’s bombast whether he is the ultimate nominee
or not. By Trump’s rivals’ relative
silence in criticizing him (except for a recent Kasich commercial), Democratic
strategists should use Trump’s words and paint the whole Republican Party with
them. Their silence equals acquiescence.
Right now, Trump is the
Republicans’ biggest nightmare and no one in the party knows how to deal with it.