Conventional Wisdom the Loser in Local Elections

Current County Executive Allan Kittleman and new County Executive
Calvin Ball         Photo: Baltimore Post Examiner

On a chilly Election Day evening, hundreds of Howard County Democratic partisans packed Kahler Hall in Columbia, Md. to do what folks had hoped to do: celebrate victories. National and local returns were projected on screens via cable news programming and a laptop while people huddled around the screens, sat at round tables engaged in high-spirited political conversations, hitting the buffet line, mingling about, or taking selfies as polls were closing in much of the East.  #hocopolitics

The traditional venue for such occasions has been a horror show for Democrats in 2014 and 2016.  This night would be different, many of the Dem supporters hoped and believed.  And they were right.

When the Howard County numbers eventually rolled in with only a handful of precincts remaining on this November 6 night, several deafening roars exploded as it appeared that Dr. Calvin Ball, a three-term member of the County Council, was poised to upset incumbent Allan H. Kittleman as County Executive. Prosecutor Rich Gibson followed with a lusty defeat of Republican Kim Oldham as the new State’s Attorney, and most of the other offices down the ballot followed suit.  The much ballyhooed Blue Wave was indeed washing throughout Howard County.

Click here for all the election results in Maryland.

The biggest loser in these local elections was conventional wisdom, which took a back seat to other dynamics that were in play. Below are examples of how conventional wisdom was shattered:

The top of ticket pulls up lower candidates. Governor Larry Hogan handily defeated his Democratic challenger Ben Jealous by a 56% to 43% margin.  Gov. Hogan, the odds-on favorite and a leader in just about every poll, was supposed to help Republican candidates down the ballot. 

It did not work in Howard County. Mr. Hogan garnered 56.7% to Mr. Jealous’ 42.2% (similar to the overall state vote) yet the Democrat Dr. Ball defeated the Republican Mr. Kittleman 52.4% to 47.5%, and most other Dems in the county won as well.

Results were similar in other central Maryland counties. In Baltimore County, Gov. Hogan handily defeated Mr. Jealous by a 61.7% - 37.3% count in that jurisdiction, but the Democrat John Olszewski, Jr. defeated Republican Al Redmer, Jr. by a 57.5% to 42.4% margin.  In Anne Arundel, the divergence was even greater.  While Gov. Hogan walloped Mr. Jealous 69.1% to 29.8%, Democrat Steuart Pittman outlasted Republican Steve Schuh 52% to 47.9%.

In all three jurisdictions, incumbent County Executive Republicans succumbed to Democratic challengers despite the Governor’s margin of victory.  Clearly, there were no coattails.

Howard Co.	Howard Co.	State
Kittleman     47.5	Hogan      56.7	56.1
Ball              52.4	Jealous     42.2	42.8

Baltimore Co.	Baltimore Co.	State
Redmer      42.4	Hogan      61.7	56.1
Olszewski   57.5	Jealous     37.3	42.8

Anne Arundel	Anne Arundel	State
Schuh          47.9	Hogan     69.1	56.1
Pittman        52.0	Jealous    29.8	42.8

A favored candidate shouldn’t start off campaign attacking opponent.  One of the criticisms of frontrunner Anthony Brown’s ill-fated 2014 gubernatorial bid was that he began his campaign by immediately hitting the relatively unknown Larry Hogan with negative ads thus elevating his profile. Shrugging off that philosophy, in 2018, the Republican Governors Association launched vicious attack ads against Mr. Jealous painting him as “too extreme for Maryland” and one who is guaranteed to raise taxes to fund his programs. Mr. Jealous was slow to respond and never recovered.

It should be noted that although Mr. Kittleman had been favored to be re-elected in Howard County, he did not engage in negative attack ads, and Dr. Ball did not either, resulting in an unusual but refreshing contest.

Endorsements help candidates. Republican candidates throughout the state, sensing an easy victory for Gov. Hogan, did not hesitate to include “Hogan Endorsed” as part of their materials, advertising and signage. By and large, it did not work.  Endorsements are overrated and popularity is not transferable when other more important factors are in play.

Incumbency has an advantage.  The benefits of incumbency are clear. The candidate has name recognition. He or she probably has a residual war chest from the previous campaign to spend in the current campaign, which takes some pressure off of fundraising. The candidate has a record of accomplishments to run on. And the higher level of visibility based on the time in office serves as an additional advantage.

In Howard County, however, Republican incumbents except those whose districts spilled into more conservative terrain in Carroll County lost. Nonetheless, all Howard County Democratic incumbents won.

Calvin Ball was not predicted to win.  Mr. Kittleman had all the benefits of incumbency (see above) and money plus he enjoyed relatively high job approval and personal popularity. Moreover, a Mason Dixon poll  released merely six weeks before the election indicated Mr. Kittleman should glide to victory as he enjoyed a 16% lead. For Dr. Ball’s part, an internal poll  had forecast a much tighter race.

Dr. Ball benefitted from his own positive personal attributes, a strong ground game and solid messaging including his vision for the county that hit the target especially in the weeks leading up to the election. However, the “Trump effect” played a significant role, not only in the County Executive race but also with others down ballot.

Governor Hogan enjoyed high job approval across the board and pulled in a good chunk Democratic and independent votes. But after that, Democrats were driven to turn out to vote Democratic in part, as a protest to Trumpism and the Republican Party that has enabled it.

Mr. Kittleman, hardly a Trumpster, was caught between a rock and a hard place. With less than a third of the county’s active voters identifying as Republican, Mr. Kittleman needed to pull in Democratic and independent support. His conundrum was that if he railed against President Trump, he would alienate those GOP voters who are ardent Trump supporters.  If he was to be silent concerning the president (he largely was), then Democrats could not see him as a viable antidote to Trump’s policies and bigotry.

In addition, Republican activists charged Mr. Kittleman with trying too hard to get Democrats on board and not paying enough attention to Republican concerns.

Other factors hurt the incumbent as well including the controversial mulch legislation, his opposition to Howard being a sanctuary county and the rebuilding plans following the second Ellicott City flood in three years.

The intensity of enthusiasm benefitted Dr. Ball; the lack of same hurt Mr. Kittleman. The lopsided early voting margin for Democrats conveyed excitement and proved too steep of a hill for Mr. Kittleman to climb. Hoping to eradicate the Dem lead, Mr. Kittleman only managed 142 more votes than Dr. Ball on Election Day.

The County Executive race ended with sportsmanship and civility.

The defeated candidate does not concede in person.  

Finally, as the crowd at Kahler Hall continued to cheer, hug and high-five one another, news swept among the masses remaining in the ballroom that Calvin Ball’s opponent, Allan Kittleman, was in the lobby to personally concede the election and congratulate the victor. In a stunning and classy move, Mr. Kittleman, his wife and three children, clad in their campaign yellow t-shirts, entered the building with the candidates embracing and raising their locked arms as if they both won.

They did. But conventional wisdom lost.

Rep. Cummings Could Make the Difference



Rep. Elijah Cummings

We are fast approaching the November 6 election and all that goes with it.  

Included among several ballot initiatives is the referendum on marriage equality.  The actual language for Question 6 reads as follows: “Establishes that Maryland’s civil marriage laws allow gay and lesbian couples to obtain a civil marriage license, provided they are not otherwise prohibited from marrying; protects clergy from having to perform any particular marriage ceremony in violation of their religious beliefs; affirms that each religious faith has exclusive control over its own theological doctrine regarding who may marry within that faith; and provides that religious organizations and certain related entities are not required to provide goods, services, or benefits to an individual related to the celebration or promotion of marriage in violation of their religious beliefs.”

Both sides are amping up the message war that will befall us up to Election Day.  They will have to scratch out limited air time to compete with the gambling question, political candidate ads and the ubiquitous Luna commercials.

Polls have indicated positive support for defending the Civil Marriage Protection Act that was signed into law in March.  One would be wise, however, to view the poll numbers with caution, if not skepticism, as people tend to respond in “politically correct” ways when social issues are put before them.

One thing is very clear: the African-American vote in Maryland is likely to be crucial on Question 6.  When California voters in 2008 upheld Proposition 8, which defines marriage as a union between one man and one woman, the conventional wisdom at the time incorrectly blamed black voters for the disappointing outcome.  It should be noted that African-Americans in California comprise less than 10 percent of the population; they did not have a significant impact on the result.  It was more generational.

In Maryland, it is expected that blacks will account for at least 25 percent of the voters, especially with an African-American president who is seeking reelection on the ballot.  Turnout will be high, so gaining support among African-Americans for marriage equality will be crucial here.

There are several reasons to be optimistic in the Maryland vote that were not evident in California four years ago.  There has been a discernible upward trending by the public over the past few years favoring same-sex marriage.  Perhaps significant here is President Obama’s public support for marriage equality.  Religious African-Americans may still not share the president’s views on this matter and will likely vote “No,” but non-religious blacks may be convinced on the merits of the fairness argument the president offered.

Moreover, the national NAACP led by its president Benjamin Jealous, also came out in favor of marriage equality that could have a reinforcing effect.

But as esteemed as these individuals and organizations are, especially in the African-American community, a more local official with a high level of respect and standing could be a difference-maker.  And that individual is Democratic Representative Elijah Cummings.

We need Rep. Cummings to step forward and support marriage equality.  Until now, he has stated he would not oppose the Maryland congressional delegation’s backing of marriage equality, but he has not joined the team.  He decided to leave the matter to the voters.

Rep. Cummings, who has represented Maryland’s 7^th Congressional District since 1996 covering Baltimore City and parts of Howard County, left an opening, though.  In a statement dated June 27, he said, “Like many of my friends and colleagues, I have been on a journey when it comes to supporting same-sex marriage. When you come from a religious background where you’ve been taught all your life that marriage is between a man and a woman, and then you find yourself looking at how a society is changing and how many in your own community are seeing the issue in terms of fairness and equality, it makes you re-think your position.”

If anyone ever attended an event where Rep. Cummings is a speaker, you will know how this man is filled with passion, displays great oratory gifts, and could coax a mountain lion off a mountain.   He also has strong ties to his church, which could be influential among religious voters. 

It would be a difficult decision for him, especially in light of his solid relationships with African-American pastors.   But Rep. Cummings also has plenty of political cover.  For one thing, he has a safe seat whereby he has garnered no less than three quarters of the vote in any election. 

The President of the United States, who had supported civil unions as does Rep. Cummings, backs same-sex marriage completing his evolution on the issue.  The national Democratic Party included marriage equality as part of the 2012 platform.  Maryland’s governor Martin O’Malley has emerged as a strong advocate.  So have both Senators and most of Maryland’s congressional caucus.  Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has been supportive even before she held the position.  And the list goes on.

Leading civil rights icons have lent their support as well.  Among the most noteworthy was the late Coretta Scott King.  “Homophobia is like racism and anti-Semitism,” she said... “in that it seeks to dehumanize a large group of people, to deny their humanity, their dignity and personhood.”

Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), a long-time soldier in the battle for civil rights, is another staunch supporter of marriage equality as are the Rev. Jesse Jackson and the Rev. Al Sharpton—admired leaders in the African-American community.

And former NAACP head Julian Bond recently penned an op-ed in the Afro-American where he argued that marriage equality in Maryland is good for black gay and lesbian couples.  “There are thousands of African Americans - our brothers and sisters, cousins, neighbors, and co-workers – who are gay, in committed relationships, and want to marry,” Mr. Bond points out.

Rep. Cummings would be the perfect person to join in support.  An individual of his stature persuading people that marriage equality is right would go a long way towards defending the bill in November’s referendum.

To contact Rep. Elijah Cummings, visit here.