The
president is banking on a lot to break his way to overcome his unpopularity.
We’re more than 16 months away
from the presidential election and the Democratic field of challengers exceeds
20. Therefore, so much can happen in that time span that could alter the
political landscape one way or the other.
I make no predictions as to who
the eventual Democratic nominee will be nor do I speculate on whether or not
Trump will ultimately be impeached. (It’s not because I don’t want to, it’s
because I simply can’t.) These are all fluid developments. The one constant has
been Donald Trump’s job approval ratings, which have ranged from the low- to
mid- 40’s throughout his presidency.
Despite what has been
characterized as a good economy, his numbers do not portend success in the
election as he has shown to be president of his base only and not the country
as a whole. The failure to expand upon his base is his likely undoing, but
after 2016, who knows? He won the
Electoral College with some 46 percent of the vote.
Accordingly, Trump is banking on
a number of conditions to exist up to the election to overcome his being the
most unpopular president in a more than a generation. Some of these are legit but others are
far-fetched. I handicap each of these
with “diamond” ratings—one diamond being next to impossible and five being a
slam-dunk certainty—in no particular order.
The Economy. Most
any incumbent president would see their reelection chances soar if the economy
is good (“It’s the economy, stupid.”). However, beauty is in the eye of the
beholder. While certain statistics like growth, unemployment and the stock
market appear to be favorable, not everyone in the country is benefitting
directly. Wages are stagnant necessitating people to work multiple jobs to keep
up with rising prescription drug prices among other expenses. Factory jobs continue to be lost, and the Trump-created
trade war has hurt many farmers.
As for the stock market, most
people in the know understand that the law of gravity is king here. The markets are due for a correction and
could tank at any time between now and November 2020. A recession is certainly possible as well, according to some economists..
So, will the economy remain
favorable to Trump as election nears? ♦
♦
Democratic Infighting.
Make no mistake there is considerable tension among Democrats regarding
priorities. Is it more important to
defeat Trump or push for policies that bend leftward? Is a single payer for health insurance and
scrapping private insurers preferable to massaging Obamacare? What bold policies are desirable versus what
can actually be accomplished? Should
Congress impeach the president based on evidence contained in the Mueller
Report or should it assume such an action would benefit Trump in the general
election? And, of course, the conflict between Speaker Pelosi and four freshman
women of color still festers. These are
just a few of the issues that divide Democrats at this time.
Nonetheless, I believe 2016 is
fresh in the minds of Democrats. We saw
what happened when the party was not unified.
Dems now understand the inherent hazards of Trump being re-elected, and they
will likely get behind the eventual nominee. But you never know what the Dems
are capable of when it comes to elections.
Should Trump bank on a
Democratic circular firing squad? ♦ ♦ ♦
The Socialist Label.
Trump is a master of messaging and name-calling, and it helps to keep his
supporters in line. More precisely, Republicans
in Congress are so terrified of Trump and the power of his tweets that they have
sold their souls to him.
There is no secret Trump plans
to roll out the “Socialist” brand on Democrats regardless of the nominee. Radical, left, socialist Democrats will be
the mantra. Even Trump lapdog Lindsey
Graham referred to the four women of color involved in the Pelosi controversy
as “Communists” underscores how low they will go.
Though popular programs such as
Medicare and Social Security can be considered socialist by some definitions,
the moniker is treated now as a weapon. To be
clear, the term socialist was used against Barack Obama in 2008 without success.
Can this scare tactic be successful?
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
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| Image: American Prospect |
Us Against Them: Donald Trump’s continuation of his long-held racist and
xenophobic beliefs is a winning strategy, according to people in Trump’s
orbit.
Immigration will likely be a
major issue in the general as Trump stokes fear, resentment and division. But images are more powerful than anything
Trump can tweet, and the footage showing inhumanely overcrowded cages on the
border and children separated from their families are devastating.
His tweet that that Reps.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Talib, Ilhan Omar and Ayanna Pressley should
“go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which
they came” is yet another manifestation of Trump’s ignorance and desire to
divide Americans. Believing that
incendiary tweets like this will firm up the bigoted elements of his base is safe
to assume.
However, Trump did not expect
the blowback to be so harsh (though hardly a peep from the Trump-intimidated
GOP Representatives and Senators) from the media, Democrats and independents
that it seemed to have backfired and caused feuding Democrats to close ranks in
unity against the profound racism emanating from Trump.
Remember Trump claimed that
U.S.-born Judge Curiel could not be fair in presiding over a case involving
Trump University because of his Mexican heritage. Then there are these: “Mexicans are rapists”, the Gold Star Khan family, Charlottesville comments, the attack on some African-American celebrities
as “low IQ”, "shithole countries", etc. Nevermind his examples of racism prior to his running for president. The racism and
xenophobia are palpable and ongoing.
Yes, his bigoted base will be motivated to vote, and this serves to keep
them enthused. But will it work in the
general election? ♦ ♦
Russia, Russia Russia!
In my view, Trump doesn’t become president if Russia hadn’t interfered by
particularly shaping and reaffirming people’s attitudes against Hillary Clinton
and for Donald Trump. Robert Mueller was
very clear about that after the multi-year investigation into Russian meddling
in the 2016 election.
Trump had the audacity to side
with Putin’s version of events over that of our intelligence community (some
patriot!). He doesn’t take the interference seriously because he knew it helped
him and other Republicans as well. Even worse, he has done next to nothing to
prevent a similar attempt by Russia to plant doubts in the minds of Americans
regarding the reliability of the election results.
Can Trump count on Russia to
help him win again? ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
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