Blue Skies?

Why Republicans shouldn’t be spiking the ball just yet.

Republicans could hardly contain their glee. The president’s approval rating is low. A bloody war is waging. Inflation and gas prices are threatening our economic stability.  There’s trouble at the border.  Covid is hanging around. The stock market has been in a free-fall. Biden’s economic agenda has been stalled. Gerrymandering has locked in Republican districts. These developments and more are pointing to a November blow-out. Even popular presidents see their party lose seats in Congress during the mid-terms.

All Republicans needed to do is hold on to the ball and run out the clock. A red tide would sweep the country. But sometimes there could be a bad snap, a fumble or an ill-advised penalty and suddenly victory, which was ostensibly certain moments earlier, could be in jeopardy.

The bombshell leak last week of the Supreme Court draft opinion that foretold the demise of the popular Roe v. Wade ruling was tantamount to a political earthquake. The most nervous person in the U.S. is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has expected to return to his majority leadership position, has been in the “let’s run out the clock camp.” Now he has seen the ball sail over the quarterback’s head.

So worried that the news of the likely overturning of the 49-year-old ruling could galvanize downtrodden Democrats—downtrodden because of the political headwinds mentioned above—that the Republican response was Trump-like focused on the identity of the leaker rather than the substance of the opinion.

GOP folks have attempted to downplay the impact by turning the subject back to inflation. In other words, change the subject and fast. But people don't like their rights taken away and will motivate them to act.

Importantly, the early indication of how SCOTUS would rule on Roe gave the Dems an extra month or so to mobilize the opposition and change their attitudes and strategies towards the mid-terms. Democrats received a new lease on life.

It’s hard to say at this point how this will play out. Democrats can wound themselves if protests at

Supreme Court justices’ residences get out of hand. Recall how Republicans turned largely peaceful protests over the murder of George Floyd into the radical left burning down cities narrative. They used this whataboutism technique in trying to explain away the riots and insurrection on January 6, 2021 and they will use it again to blunt the outrage over Roe.

Democrats stand to regain the allegiance of suburban women and independents based on overturning Roe. They could let that slip away if they don’t play their cards right.

The hope for Democrats as they scramble to do what’s necessary to protect a woman’s right to determine the well-being of their own bodies is that the fire and energy we see now will not dissipate come November. Clearly, they can use this highly emotional issue and bludgeon Republican candidates from the Senate to the state legislatures.

Potentially aiding the cause will be the onset of the bipartisan January 6 House Select Committee’s public hearings, which will occur next month. It is fairly obvious the committee will lay out methodically how President Trump not only inspired the riots of that day and did nothing to squelch them, but more significantly how he and his allies plotted to execute a coup. The public should also be reminded of which congressmen and senators voted to not certify the presidential election.

This one-two punch should give the Dems a major boost. They need to harness this energy to raise money and launch major voter registration drives and develop get out the vote strategies in all 50 states.

We won’t know the outcome until November as to which party recovered that bad snap. But right now it’s a free ball.

How Dems May Surprise in 2022

Few pundits are giving the Democrats any chance of holding the House of Representatives or clinging to the narrowest of leads in the Senate as a result of the 2022 midterms. There are significant reasons for the long odds.

One, history is not on the Democrats’ side. The party that controls the White House almost always loses seats in the midterms regardless of how the president is polling. It makes no sense, but that’s just the way it happens. Secondly, with most states controlled by Republican legislatures, gerrymandering congressional districts will give the GOP a significant boost. They know this, and they act like they are playing with house money.

Furthermore, with COVID-19 still attacking our bodies and the economy in whiplash mode depending on how the pandemic plays out between now and next November, the uncertainty will clearly be blamed on Democrats and the Biden administration. Again, it makes no sense but that’s how it goes.

And with McConnell-led Republican obstructionism in full swing and two Democratic senators who are loath to change the filibuster rules, Biden’s agenda will have hit a brick wall, so the GOP will point out the failures of this administration to accomplish anything.

Then there is the decrease in turnout by voters of the party who controls the White House.

Despite these daunting headwinds, the Democrats still have a chance of not only holding the House but gaining seats in the Senate. There is one thing that’s going to help them in this unlikely quest that no amount of fundraising or good fortune from the economy could ever do: their Republican opponents.

The Republican Party is tethered to Donald Trump and Trumpism and the Big Lie about the November 2020 election that led to a violent and deadly insurrection on January 6 in an attempt to overturn the election results.

To be sure, gerrymandering could be a potent obstacle to success, but the Republican Party has not added new voters to their flock. In fact, many have taken flight from the GOP principally because of the Big Lie that continues to be perpetrated by Trump and his acolytes and the horrors of January 6. Control of the House will be determined by suburban voters in swing districts, and they are not too thrilled with the Republican Party writ large. Voter suppression laws passed by Republicans are not helping their image either.

The more Trump dangles his interest in running again for president in 2024, the more it will help Democrats across the board. Not only is a majority of people around the country disgusted by Trump’s clear incitement of the riots at the Capitol and his failure to do anything to quell the violence as he joyfully watched the events unfold on TV, they are sickened by a Republican Party whereby a vast majority of Congressmen opposed the certification of a free and fair election.

Moreover, McConnell and the Republicans in the Senate blocked a bipartisan commission to look into the run-up of January 6, what transpired, who may have coordinated the attacks and how such an episode could be prevented in the future. They obviously don’t want the truth to come out because all roads will likely lead to Trump, at least that’s what they fear. Trump is still the top dog of the GOP until such time he is indicted as a result of the multiple investigations still underway.

In the meantime, Democrats will benefit from the fact Republican candidates will be primaried by Trump-light crazies who will do anything to receive his endorsement. The MAGA base will turn out for these clowns and send them to the general election.

Keep in mind, at no time did Trump ever break 49 percent approval during his term in office. After January 6, it plummeted to 29 percent. Republicans just don’t get it. Trump is only popular among his shrinking base and nowhere else—not independents, not suburban Republican voters and certainly not Democrats. Thus, placating Trump to head to a general election with Trump-like candidates is a perilous venture.

In Deep South Georgia, two Democratic candidates for Senate prevailed in a runoff mainly because of exceptionally high voter turnout among Democrats and independents largely seen as a rejection of  Trumpism and the former president’s antics following his defeat. Key swing districts around the country could follow that model.

Yes, Joe Biden can succeed in getting an infrastructurebill passed. The economy can rebound. COVID can finally get under control. Democrats can and should tout any successes that manage to come their way. But it will take more.

“If Democrats want to prevail in 2022, good government won’t be enough,” Arkansas Times columnist Gene Lyons penned in the Chicago Sun-Times. “They need to turn the midterm elections into a referendum on the Trump cult and GOP sycophancy toward his alarming assault on democracy.”

They also need to make Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Green, Jim Jordan, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy and many others as well as Trump himself the faces of the Republican Party during the campaign.

They should run ads depicting McCarthy’s and Lindsey Graham’s initial outrage over January 6 and then display them reversing course and verbally dropping to their knees at Mar-a-Lago.

And don't EVER let Trump and the Republicans off the hook regarding Jan. 6.

For Democrats approaching the midterms, this is golden, and they can thank the Trump Republican Party for this opportunity. Dems can do this and surprise the experts if they manage to muster the courage and play some hardball. That, too, would be a surprise.

Please Leave a Message

 

Thank Goodness for Barack Obama’s “Hope and Change” slogan in 2008! Other than that, I cannot think of a consistent, punchy, winning message over the past few decades that Democrats came up with. Even Joe Biden’s “Restore the Soul of America” message was poetic, but I doubt it had any impact on the 2020 race.

To be clear, effective messaging doesn’t need to be limited to a slogan or bumper sticker.  But it seems that every time a slogan or a comment is put forth by a Democrat, Republicans pounce on it.

Look how “Defund the Police,” “Medicare for All,” and ‘Green New Deal” were used as weapons against congressional Democratic candidates in 2020. Data are inconclusive as to the impact they had on those races but anecdotally, some politicians claim they had an effect.

Look how the George Floyd murder protests, which were mostly peaceful, were allowed to be manipulated by Republicans to shift the message from needed police reform to the destruction of buildings and even cities. It was a classic case of “Whataboutism.”

The most recent example is Rep. Maxine Waters’ comments regarding the Derek Chauvin trial and what should happen (confrontation) if the verdict is not favorable. The GQP took it and ran with it, and a censure action by Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had been organized though tabled.

Did the Democrats attempt to censure Marjorie Taylor Greene for her heinous comments or those Republican congressmen who have perpetuated Trump’s big lie on the 2020 election outcome? No. Or even those congressmen who spoke at Trump’s rally that incited the insurrection on January 6? Crickets.

It wasn’t that long ago when Republicans bludgeoned the Democrats for being soft on terrorism. In fact, the 2004 election cycle featured that mantra.  Is it asking a lot for Democrats to turn the tables on Republicans during the 2022 cycle by pointing out THEIR softness on domestic terrorism and white nationalism?

Even the establishment of a 9/11-style commission to look into the events surrounding January 6 can’t get any traction. Why aren’t Democrats beating the Republicans over the head with January 6? Yet, the Republicans Benghazi-ed the Democrats to death when they saw an opportunity.

We cannot ever forget what happened January 6, and we should not allow the Republicans to escape the linkage between the atrocities of that event, Donald Trump and those Republicans who voted to acquit the former president in the impeachment trial when he so clearly incited the attack.

The Democrats do not need a catchy slogan to inculcate this matter into the conversation during the 2022 cycle. Footage will do just nicely. Those horrific images of Trump flag-carrying thugs breaching our Capitol should be a staple in every Democratic ad against those Republicans who are apparently soft on insurrections. Pictures do speak louder than words.

The Republicans' Idea of Unity

I know speaking of unity can sound to some like a foolish fantasy. I know the forces that divide us are deep and they are real. But I also know they are not new.—President Joe Biden from his Inaugural Address, Jan. 20, 2021

As a candidate Joe Biden made unity the centerpiece of his campaign to the chagrin of the left wing of the Democratic Party. It helped win over Trump-opposing Republicans, independents and suburban women in his quest to get elected. Though so many have been skeptical of the prospect of unifying such a divided country especially after the past four years, the concept of unity was the principal theme in Mr. Biden’s inaugural address.

Merely hours after the inaugural festivities, truncated as they were due to the pandemic and security concerns, Republicans across the board demonstrated they are not having any of it. A reporter from a right wing media outlet asked the new and refreshingly competent press secretary Jen Psaki if the Democrats are ready to extend an olive branch to the Republicans in the name of unity.The Democrats need to offer an olive branch to Republicans? What a joke!

Maybe if the overwhelming majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives and a handful of senators would acknowledge that Joe Biden won the election fair and square (which he did), that would be a good first step in unifying the country. Recall how over 150 of these legislators objected to the certified election results in several states and that was AFTER the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6.

Let’s also look at sore loser Trump’s behavior following the election. Through the moment he fled to Florida on January 20 as a disgraced twice impeached president, he never publicly mentioned Joe Biden’s name, never acknowledged he lost to Biden, delayed the crucial transition period, failed to cooperate during the transition and in fact, created unnecessary barriers, didn’t welcome Biden in the White House to confer as has been a long standing tradition, and refused to attend the inauguration. What an example of sportsmanship Trump sets for our young people!

Then there’s that pesky matter of a Trump-incited insurrection on our government with the express intent to thwart the peaceful transfer of power and to harm or even kill the first and second persons in the succession. That’s called sedition.

This incitement by urging a frothing, violent, angry mob of white supremacists and other pro-Trump believers to “take back our country” whereby they stormed and ransacked the Capitol earned Trump his second impeachment. Now Republicans, such as Trump supplicant Lindsey Graham, are pleading for the Senate to not try Trump on this article of impeachment if the Democrats want to truly unify.

Yes, Democrats should look the other way and not hold Trump accountable for his attempt to overthrow the government. They should move on. Republicans who advocate this dereliction of duty should be reminded that 5 people lost their lives as a result of the riot.

That’s one more life lost than the Benghazi raid that killed 4 Americans in Libya. Republicans didn’t move on. They held some 10 hearings on the incident and dragged then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to testify at one of these for 11 hours. For years, obsessed Republicans screamed Benghazi! Benghazi! Benghazi! over and over. But a violent attempted coup? Not so much. Let’s just move on.

We should never forget January 6. It should forever be memorialized as 9/11 has been. But this tragedy, this national disgrace, was perpetrated not by foreign jihadists but by misinformed and conspiracy theory-obsessed American citizens who were provoked by a deranged, lying and unpatriotic president, aided by his kooky attorney and two rogue overly ambitious senators and a number of equally seditious representatives.

Within hours of the inauguration, Republicans and their agents on right wing media mocked Biden’s call for unity. The hashtag #ImpeachBidenNow trended on Twitter. Mitch McConnell already began playing games to hold off on finalizing his minority leader status and jeopardizing COVID relief legislation. Unity appears to be an elusive goal especially if it is not in the political interests of Republicans.

It’s a no-brainer for an incoming president especially from a different political party who had previously occupied the White House to ask for unity. And like he said, it could be seen as a foolish fantasy.

A degree of unity could only work if both sides are willing to pull together. One would think that the pandemic that kills Americans regardless of political affiliation would finally bring us collectively to fight the disease as a matter of patriotism.

President Biden’s realistic idea of unity is at least lowering the temperature of the rhetoric. The Republican idea of unity, however, is for Democrats to capitulate to their whims and take no actions to offend that perennially angry Republican base, who for the most part see Mr. Biden as an illegitimate president.

For Biden this is a Big Fu****g Deal

Joe Biden addressing the nation on the coronavirus

Under the cloud of uncertainty stemming from COVID-19, the primary races are continuing albeit without the grandeur of big crowd rallies and other forms of interpersonal campaigning. Even the debate on Sunday between Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden will take place at CNN’s Washington studio with no live audience to distract from the candidates’ ability to enunciate their points. #hocopolitics

Biden is clearly the front runner following a jaw-dropping comeback that has every pundit on earth scratching his or her head.  While Sanders is mathematically in contention, the landscape looks bleak for the Democratic Socialist with the upcoming debate the last realistic opportunity to change the trajectory of the race.

To repeat the sentence Biden uttered into a hot mic to a cringing President Obama following the signing of the Affordable Care Act, this is a big fu****g deal.  Where we stand now in the primaries and caucuses, that sentence is apropos for Biden and, of course, Sanders.

How aggressive the now underdog Sanders will go after Biden in this one-on-one matchup, the first of the primary season, is unclear. Some Sanders’ supporters along with Trump supporters led by Donald Trump, Jr. have been pushing the narrative that at a minimum, Biden is no longer on his game and at the extreme end, he suffers from dementia. They site Biden’s malapropisms, gaffes, and confusion at times as evidence. It’s sad that people would use such a personal attack, but in the age of Trump, there are no longer any rules.

Unquestionably, this debate will provide the opportunity for Biden to prove the critics wrong. The less frenetic, more casual setting should be better terrain for Biden. However, he is still prone to mistakes and in the age of social media, the slightest slip-up will be magnified and will be cycled through Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and what-not. And they will be compiled into a montage for ads as the election cycle proceeds.

It is akin to attending the Indy 500 looking for a crash as opposed to the caring who the ultimate winner is after dozens of laps.  People will be scrutinizing Biden’s style and fluidity of thought more than his actual policy positions.  Bernie’s style is already baked in so he won’t be under that sort of microscope. And he is no longer the frontrunner.

There is considerable irony that Trump supporters are pushing the dementia button on Biden. This is especially so following Trump’s pathetic dumpster fire of a nationally televised speech from the Oval Office this past Wednesday in a Hail Mary attempt to quell the nervous financial markets. 

Slurring many of his words, seemingly out of it, speaking like it was a hostage video, Trump piled up lie after lie, mistake after mistake while not seriously addressing the public health measures that the coronavirus requires.

The markets responded with the futures dropping during each utterance like leaves falling from trees in November. And on Thursday, the markets rewarded Trump, who sees the coronavirus and its ensuing economic impact as a significant threat to his re-election chances, with the worst day on Wall Street since the huge crash of October 1987.

Joe Biden receiving the critical endorsement from Rep. Clyburn

By stark contrast Joe Biden, as did Bernie Sanders, showed what presidential leadership is all about. Both described the situation in calm, measured tones while articulating the correct course of action to be taken. For Biden, this was a huge moment and he delivered.

Facing this debate where Biden is only one of the two last standing is, in itself, a miracle of sorts. Left for dead along with other Democratic hopefuls after the first three contests, Biden received arguably the most consequential endorsement in modern election cycles.

Normally, endorsements have minimal effect; not this one. James Clyburn, the highly respected Congressman from South Carolina and Democratic Majority Whip gave an emotional endorsement of Biden that propelled the 77 year-old candidate to a crushing win in South Carolina. That victory, powered by African-American voters, launched this comeback, also powered by that demographic, to major victories on Super Tuesday and the primaries the following week. Other Dem hopefuls joined the post-South Carolina parade by endorsing Biden and seeing him as the best chance to defeat Trump.

#hocopolitics

For Joe Biden, who ran unsuccessfully twice before and didn’t win his first primary ever until the South Carolina game-changer, is at the precipice of finally reaching that goal. Clearly, Trump doesn’t want to face him in the general election as he was impeached for his efforts to sully Biden’s reputation.

Joe Biden needs to seal the deal this Sunday. He doesn’t have to “win” the debate as that assessment will come from the electorate who will view the debate through the lens of their candidate. But he must be able to hold his own. If he does, the finish line will be near as upcoming primaries loom favorable to Biden.

This is indeed a big f*****g deal.

How Dems Could Win From Impeachment Trial

House  managers walking articles of impeachment to the Senate
Photo: Axios

Spoiler Alert: President Donald Trump will not be removed from office as a result the upcoming impeachment trial in the Senate. Nonetheless, if they play their cards with skill and determination, the Democrats could come out winners politically.

As we experience the third time in history that a U.S. President has been impeached, Trump has now assembled his made-for-TV lawyers to defend him in the Senate trial. Too bad Matlock and Perry Mason are unavailable because for Trump it’s all about the show. On one hand Trump wanted a quick dismissal. On the other hand he sought a theatrical display whereby he is completely exonerated and will blame the radical angry Democrats for wasting everyone’s time. At this point we still don’t know what he wants.  

For their part, the Democrats, need to be key players in the show as well. With the outcome a near certainty, the charge for the Democrats is to get their messaging on point to win the political battle—no easy task with the messaging skills of Trump, Trump TV, and his sycophantic supporters in Congress and beyond.

Trump and his cheerleaders have repeatedly labeled the impeachment a hoax. Democrats should continue to shoot back saying that his own phone call to Ukrainian’s President Zelensky plus the credible testimony by foreign service and other professionals point directly to a shakedown of the Ukrainian government by withholding nearly $400 million in military aid in exchange for announcing an investigation into Hunter Biden and by extension his father Joe Biden—a leading contender to oust President Trump in November.

While each senator swore an oath of impartiality, public comments by McConnell and Sen. Lindsey Graham declared just the opposite. This is a strong talking point for Dems to use to declare the trial was never going to be fair from the outset.

Armed with a mountain of evidence that is credible and clear, Trump has been charged by the House of Representatives in two articles of impeachment for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.  The question looming prior to the trial is will Senate Leader Mitch McConnell and his Republican minions allow witnesses and documentation as part of a trial.

If there is a deal whereby key witnesses, such as former National Security Advisor John Bolton and Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani’s henchman Lev Parnas are allowed to testify, their testimony could be explosive. Never mind that Vice President Pence, Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, former Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are also key witnesses who could potentially be damaging to the president as they would testify under oath.  It should be noted that Trump had exerted executive privilege in blocking these characters from testifying at congressional committee hearings.

If the Republicans manage to win a vote that prevents fact witnesses and documentation, Democrats should (and probably will) declare the trial a sham and rightfully accuse the Republicans of being willing players in a massive cover-up. The Dems should exploit this to the hilt and wreak havoc on vulnerable senators up for re-election should they be a party to this act.

Trump’s defense team denounced the impeachment case stating, “The articles of impeachment submitted by House Democrats are a dangerous attack on the right of the American people to freely choose their president. This is a brazen and unlawful attempt to overturn the results of the 2016 election and interfere with the 2020 election, now just months away.”

The U.S. Senate: the scene of the impeachment trial

This is a paper thin argument and does not bode well for Trump if this is the best his dream team can come up with. For one thing, the impeachment is not taking the right away from the American people to freely choose their president. Of course, Russia’s indisputable (except by Trump and his allies) interference in the 2016 election must have been forgotten.  

Secondly, the action by the House is far from “unlawful.”  Impeachment is enshrined in the Constitution (Article I, Sections 2-4,)—a document that Trump never read and now I have my doubts about his legal team as well.

Moreover, if Trump was actually removed, the election would not have been overturned. Vice President Mike Pence would succeed him in office, not Hillary Clinton.

We are hearing rumors that the defense team may stipulate to the facts in the articles and instead try to convince the 100-person jury (the Senate) and the American people that what Trump did does not meet the threshold of impeachment and removal.  Trump, however, will not have any of it.  Under no circumstances will he allow his defense to admit that the famous call to Zelensky was anything but “perfect.”  Look for a shake-up of the team should that stipulation materializes.

Barring a development of nuclear proportions, Trump will remain in office after this proceeding.  This is all about the 2020 election now. For Democrats, the mission is to zealously prosecute the case and remind voters that the president put our national security on the back burner in order to gain a political advantage in the upcoming election.

They need to pound the message home that Republicans again put devotion to their party and their fealty to Trump above the national interests. The Dems need to emphasize, regardless of the outcome, that nobody is above the law and our democracy is at stake.

If they do this right, the Democrats can win even by losing.

Rooting for a Recession???

The desperate GOP accuses Dems, media for craving an economic downturn.

You have to hand it to the Republicans for their ability to create excuses when things aren’t going their way.  President Trump, seeing his re-election prospects dimming by the findings from a FOX News poll,  has started to re-launch one of his favorite B.S. excuses: voter fraud.  It is a metaphysical certainty that should Trump go down to defeat in 2020, he will state without equivocation and without evidence that voter fraud turned the election against him. And Lord knows what else he might do or say.

Following the recent gargantuan stock market drop that included a striking 800-plus loss from the Dow, talk of the R-word (recession), started to surface.  The prospect of a recession in the not-too-distant future emanated from numerous well-respected economists. But because the media covered these alarm signals, the media as well as Democrats and other opponents of Donald Trump are being targeted by Trump supporters for as they see it, rooting for this to happen.  Why? A recession would hurt the chances for Trump’s reelection.  #hocopolitics

Simply put, a recession is an economic phenomenon when there is negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.  Consumer confidence is down; consumer spending, which is the principal driver of the economy, is sharply reduced; the stock market heads south; the national debt heads north; and businesses tend to lay off workers . 

Coincidence or not, according to MarketWatch, every Republican president since Teddy Roosevelt has had to deal with a recession in his first term.  These are cyclical events that follow years of robust economic expansion. 

A recession or a significant downturn in the economy would eliminate the main rationale for Trump’s re-election. He has prided himself and has taken all the credit for what has been up to now--a strong economy.  Yet, as the New York Times explains,  Trump’s on again, off again trade war with China has exacerbated the uncertainty among business leaders and that has sparked the talk of a slow-down.

Knowing that, his supporters are accusing Democrats with the help of the liberal media of creating a fertile environment for a recession by rooting for it to happen. Here’s a sampling from Twitter:

The left-wing media is hoping for a recession. They know Democrats' economic policies can't win against @realDonaldTrump's so they keep trying to convince Americans that a recession is coming. pic.twitter.com/UjlrE2hFw8

— Newt Gingrich (@newtgingrich) August 19, 2019

Democrats are rooting for a recession. The media is cheerfully reporting that steel workers are being laid off. WTF, people. They want America to fail.

— Lew (@lewsmuse) August 21, 2019

To be fair, anti-Trump comedian Bill Maher has indicated on several occasions that he is rooting for a recession to hurt Trump in his re-election bid. But Maher is in the minority and he is unlikely to be severely impacted financially from such an outcome.

However, millions of other Americans will suffer.  A recession is not something to long for even if makes you feel better politically. It’s like hoping to catch the flu to avoid school or work. Recessions are caused by myriad domestic and global factors but cheering them on is not one of them.

The point is, the GOP strategy is to preemptively pin the blame of a possible recession on the Dems and the media to mitigate the political damage it would cause the president in his reelection chances.  For his part,  Trump has primarily pointed his fingers at the Chairman of the Federal Reserve for his monetary policies as the cause of a potential recession. 

From Trump's corruption, to incompetence, to racism, to whiplash reversals of policy statements through tweets, the Democrats have seemingly unlimited ways to make the case against Trump.  They shouldn't need a faltering economy to win in 2020, and they are certainly not wishing for one. 

Should Trump Feel Optimistic About 2020?

The president is banking on a lot to break his way to overcome his unpopularity.

We’re more than 16 months away from the presidential election and the Democratic field of challengers exceeds 20. Therefore, so much can happen in that time span that could alter the political landscape one way or the other. 

I make no predictions as to who the eventual Democratic nominee will be nor do I speculate on whether or not Trump will ultimately be impeached. (It’s not because I don’t want to, it’s because I simply can’t.) These are all fluid developments. The one constant has been Donald Trump’s job approval ratings, which have ranged from the low- to mid- 40’s throughout his presidency. 

Despite what has been characterized as a good economy, his numbers do not portend success in the election as he has shown to be president of his base only and not the country as a whole. The failure to expand upon his base is his likely undoing, but after 2016, who knows?  He won the Electoral College with some 46 percent of the vote. 

Accordingly, Trump is banking on a number of conditions to exist up to the election to overcome his being the most unpopular president in a more than a generation.  Some of these are legit but others are far-fetched.  I handicap each of these with “diamond” ratings—one diamond being next to impossible and five being a slam-dunk certainty—in no particular order.

The Economy. Most any incumbent president would see their reelection chances soar if the economy is good (“It’s the economy, stupid.”). However, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. While certain statistics like growth, unemployment and the stock market appear to be favorable, not everyone in the country is benefitting directly. Wages are stagnant necessitating people to work multiple jobs to keep up with rising prescription drug prices among other expenses.  Factory jobs continue to be lost, and the Trump-created trade war has hurt many farmers.

As for the stock market, most people in the know understand that the law of gravity is king here.  The markets are due for a correction and could tank at any time between now and November 2020.  A recession is certainly possible as well, according to some economists..

So, will the economy remain favorable to Trump as election nears?  ♦ ♦

Democratic Infighting. Make no mistake there is considerable tension among Democrats regarding priorities.  Is it more important to defeat Trump or push for policies that bend leftward?  Is a single payer for health insurance and scrapping private insurers preferable to massaging Obamacare?  What bold policies are desirable versus what can actually be accomplished?  Should Congress impeach the president based on evidence contained in the Mueller Report or should it assume such an action would benefit Trump in the general election? And, of course, the conflict between Speaker Pelosi and four freshman women of color still festers.  These are just a few of the issues that divide Democrats at this time.

Nonetheless, I believe 2016 is fresh in the minds of Democrats.  We saw what happened when the party was not unified.  Dems now understand the inherent hazards of Trump being re-elected, and they will likely get behind the eventual nominee. But you never know what the Dems are capable of when it comes to elections.

Should Trump bank on a Democratic circular firing squad?   ♦ ♦ ♦

The Socialist Label. Trump is a master of messaging and name-calling, and it helps to keep his supporters in line.  More precisely, Republicans in Congress are so terrified of Trump and the power of his tweets that they have sold their souls to him.

There is no secret Trump plans to roll out the “Socialist” brand on Democrats regardless of the nominee.  Radical, left, socialist Democrats will be the mantra.  Even Trump lapdog Lindsey Graham referred to the four women of color involved in the Pelosi controversy as “Communists” underscores how low they will go.

Though popular programs such as Medicare and Social Security can be considered socialist by some definitions, the moniker is treated now as a weapon.  To be clear, the term socialist was used against Barack Obama in 2008 without success.

Can this scare tactic be successful? ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦

Image: American Prospect

 Us Against Them: Donald Trump’s continuation of his long-held racist and xenophobic beliefs is a winning strategy, according to people in Trump’s orbit.  

Immigration will likely be a major issue in the general as Trump stokes fear, resentment and division.  But images are more powerful than anything Trump can tweet, and the footage showing inhumanely overcrowded cages on the border and children separated from their families are devastating.   

His tweet that that Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Talib, Ilhan Omar and Ayanna Pressley should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came” is yet another manifestation of Trump’s ignorance and desire to divide Americans.  Believing that incendiary tweets like this will firm up the bigoted elements of his base is safe to assume. 

However, Trump did not expect the blowback to be so harsh (though hardly a peep from the Trump-intimidated GOP Representatives and Senators) from the media, Democrats and independents that it seemed to have backfired and caused feuding Democrats to close ranks in unity against the profound racism emanating from Trump.

Remember Trump claimed that U.S.-born Judge Curiel could not be fair in presiding over a case involving Trump University because of his Mexican heritage. Then there are these:  “Mexicans are rapists”, the Gold Star Khan family, Charlottesville comments, the attack on some African-American celebrities as “low IQ”, "shithole countries",  etc.  Nevermind his examples of racism prior to his running for president. The racism and xenophobia are palpable and ongoing.  Yes, his bigoted base will be motivated to vote, and this serves to keep them enthused.  But will it work in the general election? ♦ ♦

Russia, Russia Russia! In my view, Trump doesn’t become president if Russia hadn’t interfered by particularly shaping and reaffirming people’s attitudes against Hillary Clinton and for Donald Trump.  Robert Mueller was very clear about that after the multi-year investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

Trump had the audacity to side with Putin’s version of events over that of our intelligence community (some patriot!). He doesn’t take the interference seriously because he knew it helped him and other Republicans as well. Even worse, he has done next to nothing to prevent a similar attempt by Russia to plant doubts in the minds of Americans regarding the reliability of the election results.

Can Trump count on Russia to help him win again? ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦

Trump’s Cheatin’ Heart Could Beat on Him

Last month I argued that the Democratic 2020 presidential hopefuls ignore the pundits and handlers and start going after President Donald Trump. Go on the offense, I implored. Why cede the offense to Trump?

One of the ways to do that is to fight on “his” turf and resort to nicknames as Trump does routinely.  It’s been a successful tactic for Trump because labeling and branding are key components of the modern election campaign.  If he does it, so should his opponents. Remember how “Crooked Hillary” stuck on her like a stain.  Now it’s “Pocahontas,” “Sleepy Joe,” “Crazy Bernie” or whoever becomes the eventual nominee.

Yes, I know it’s childish. Why stoop to the level of a pre-teen?  Well, with so much at stake—our democracy, the rule of law, our standing and leadership in the world, and fighting for the middle class, climate change, and gun violence— winning back power is crucial.  If the media, who made Trump, continues to cover his inane tweets and rallies, then his opponents must get on the stage and battle him.  We can’t afford to give this lawless, corrupt and profoundly incompetent narcissist a second term with no accountability.

Let’s give him a nickname that will surely get under his skin. My suggestion: Cheatin’ Trump.  We have seen similar monikers employed on social media like “Don the Con” but that’s on social media. 

Candidates themselves must use two words and make it stick and ignore the sanctimonious objections by those who feel we must maintain decency.  It’s a different ballgame now, and like it or not, I assure you this election will be all about Trump and not Wall Street and other pet issues.

Cheatin’ Trump. That’s the message. There is so much to back it up.

► He has cheated on his 3 wives.

► His cheating is so obvious he had to pay adult film stars to keep quiet about it.

► He has cheated employees and contractors out of their payments.

► He cheated military service by concocting a fake bone spurs condition.

► He undoubtedly cheated on his taxes, which is probably one of several reasons he is fighting tooth and nail to keep his returns from the public.

► He cheated the unsuspecting with his joke Trump University.

► He cheated to win the election in 2016 by seeking and accepting help from a foreign adversary to persuade voters.

► He cheats the taxpayers as he violates the Emoluments clause in the Constitution by raking in millions from private properties while sitting in the White House.

► He cheats in golf “at the highest level” as sportswriter Rick Reilly pens in his book, The Commander-in-Cheat: How Golf Explains Trump.

There are potentially many more examples as his foundation and charities are under investigation.

Cheatin’ Trump would be a good name for him; it’s certainly accurate.  He can’t defend against it. He can only go on the offense.  Dems should, too.

Image by Murdo McCleod, The Guardian

Going on the Offense

For Dems to succeed in 2020, they must take it to Trump.

As the field of Democratic candidates for president in 2020 swells, each hopeful is desperately searching for a lane that will distinguish himself or herself from the rest of the pack. Some choose specific issues, such as climate change, Wall Street, health care, jobs, gun restrictions and others. 

But in the end, the winner of the primaries and who will ultimately take on Donald Trump will be the one who can convince voters that that person can engage Trump on his own turf and beat him.

Of course, many believe that our political discourse is already uncivil mainly because of the historic elections of Barack Obama in which birthers and racists like Trump tried to de-legitimize.  That was followed by the 2016 election and subsequent vile tweets and other offerings from Trump himself that have clearly degraded the office of the presidency.

In normal times we would want to push for civility and dignity in the White House and on the surface that would make a strong campaign issue.  But these are not normal times.  Democrats are facing an uphill battle as it is with Trump constantly on the offensive, an economy that at this point hasn’t tanked yet, Trump’s immovable and loyal supporters who are motivated to vote, a sycophantic GOP-controlled Senate,  and a likely intervention by Russia to ensure that Putin’s puppet remains in power.

Two years ago, I wrote a piece titled, “Where’s the Flamethrower,”  a call to action for any prominent Democrat to take it to Trump. Prior to the Midterms I wrote this piece, "Democrats Must Play the Trump Card" with a similar message.  There are so many areas in which Trump could be attacked, so much vulnerability. The Democratic electorate craves that person, and so do I.

The 2018 midterms whereby the Democrats rode a blue wave to take back the House of Representatives did so largely based on their anti-Trump fervor. Sure, health care was listed as the number one issue and rightly so, but the motivation, the energy and the drive was powered by the voters disdain for Trump and Trumpism.

Democrats in the race need to exploit Trump’s many weaknesses.  That will get under his skin and he is sure to make a huge unforced error during this volatile election cycle.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, replete with a ton of baggage from his four decades-long career, remained at the top of the polls and leads by a seemingly insurmountable margin.  Yes, the nostalgia for the Obama presidency and name recognition has a lot to do with it.  But the surge occurred after his rollout in which Biden went right after Trump from the get-go by reminding voters of Trump’s callousness regarding the 2017 racist and anti-Semitic march and demonstrations in Charlottesville, which led to the murder of Heather Heyer.

Biden was wise to roll out his campaign that way.  The Charlottesville episode was a nadir in the Trump presidency. Biden came out of the gate and pushed the Charlottesville tragedy right into Trump’s face.  Trump’s weak, yes I said weak, response was that many were heralding the exploits of General Robert E. Lee.  Keep in mind that Lee, a slave owner, was a traitor to the U.S. by leading a civil war against our nation.

There are a number of such Trump vulnerabilities to exploit, and given there is so much time left until the voting begins in the primaries including the pivotal debates, it would be wise for the other candidates in the field to execute that strategy and fire up their supporters.

Below are just two examples of where Trump is ultra-sensitive.

Trump’s lack of intellect. Trump threw Mayor Pete Buttigieg a 3-0 fastball down the middle of the plate when at a rally he said the mayor resembles Alfred E. Neuman, the mascot for MAD magazine.  Instead of hitting that cookie over the fence, Buttigieg checked his swing and fouled it off when he replied that he’d have to Google it to check the reference and that it was a generational thing. A better response was called for.

But later on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, Buttigieg took a better swing and made solid contact.  “You know, we talk about elevating the dialogue, so the fact that I inspired him to make a literary reference possibly for the first time…” he said to great laughter.

Personally, I would have said, “I didn’t realize the president’s reading comprehension level has risen to the level of MAD magazine.”

Image by CNN.com

Cowardice.  Trump boasts and brags how tough he is, how he is the best person in the room, the smartest in the room, the bravest in the room. Not so fast, conman.  The reality indicates that he is a blustery coward, and Dems should irk him to no end by dubbing him “The Avoider-in-Chief.” Consider:

. Trump avoided military service by feigning bone spurs.

. Trump avoided paying taxes by losing nearly $1 billion from his businesses.

. Trump has avoided revealing his tax returns when all other presidents in modern history have.

. Trump avoided a face-to-face interview with Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

.  Trump avoided on two occasions the usually lighthearted White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner for fear he would be made fun of.

. Trump avoids condemning Putin for Russian interference in our election and other aggressive actions undertaken by Russia.

. Trump avoids reading briefing materials on national security.

. Trump avoids revealing his high school and college transcripts.

. Trump avoids condemning Nazis and other hate groups in a sincere, convincing manner.

. Trump avoids any semblance of truth telling.

The list breathlessly goes on.

The Dems need to go after Trump as he will certainly do to them. He already welcomed each new candidate to the race with insults. Sure, “Little Marco” Rubio’s return volley fell flat and lost his home state by 20 points in the primary.  But Trump wasn’t president then; Rubio never expected him to even be the nominee. 

Democrats have a whole lot of fodder to choose from, and they must attack Trump relentlessly. Not only is this necessary because the charges are true but it will hopefully gin up enthusiasm and unify a fractious Democratic Party in time for the election.

Disregard what the pundits and polls say.  This election is not about issues as much as it is all about Trump. If you think that Trump has been bad and scary for our nation the past 2-plus years, imagine how an unbridled Trump would be in another term with no accountability to the American people.