Let's Not Get Carried Away

A recent wave of positive events has added momentum to the effort to defeat a near-certain referendum on the Civil Marriage Protection Act that was signed into law in March.  Not the least of which was President Obama’s offering public support for marriage for same-sex couples.  That was followed by the NAACP’s endorsement of same.  Then Colin Powell added a powerful voice to the cause.  And rapper Jay-Z also weighed in with a strong message. 

These developments are seen by the pro-equality forces as huge steps in helping to mitigate opposition within the African-American community in Maryland given that this support was expressed by well-respected, influential individuals and organizations.

Adding to this string of welcome developments was a Public Policy Poll released May 24 and commissioned by Marylanders for Marriage Equality that revealed an astonishing 20 percent margin—57 percent to 37 percent—favoring the marriage law in Maryland. 

In a memo, PPP pollster Tom Jensen notes there has been a “major shift in opinion about gay marriage among black voters [in Maryland].” Fifty-five percent of African Americans now say they would vote for the law and only 36% oppose it. These numbers have essentially flipped since PPP conducted an identical poll in March.”

Rather than viewing these numbers through rose-colored lenses, however, they should be examined with caution.  Even if the results are accurate, which would be great news, let’s not get carried away.

You may wonder, why put the damp cloth over what appears to be an outstanding and historic few weeks in the quest for marriage equality?  Simply put, we’ve been led down this primrose path before with favorable polling data and we had our hearts broken.  It behooves us to learn why.

Anybody who is associated with Marylanders for Marriage Equality and all other advocates and supporters should make the Prop 8 Report  required reading.  This in-depth analysis of the failed Prop 8 campaign in California is instructive, and it would be foolish and irresponsible to ignore the lessons provided. 

You see, in the equivalent period before the decisive voting took place in 2008, the polling numbers were similarly favorable.  The “No on 8” group (pro-marriage equality) raised  tons of money (over $43 million) and had a record-setting number of volunteers (51,000), so the playing field was level even considering the influences of the Mormon Church, the Roman Catholic Church and others pushing the “Yes on 8” vote.

So what went wrong?  Many erroneously blamed African-American voters who turned out in large numbers to vote for Barack Obama and are generally opposed to same-sex marriage..  But while that group did support Yes on 8 by a decent majority, they are not the principal reason for the disappointing failure.  In fact, African-Americans only comprise about 6 percent of California’s population.  In Maryland it’s close to 30 percent.

According to this report, a large number of people—regardless of race—who claimed they supported marriage equality in the months prior to November 2008 changed positions at the end.  In three-fourths of the cases, those who shifted were parents who have children under age 18 living at home.  The report states, “When parents hear that their kids are in danger, even if it’s a lie some of them believe it—particularly when the lie largely goes unanswered.” 

This swing from supporting marriage equality to voting for Prop 8 occurred several weeks before the election—following a series of TV ads that charged that schools would expose kids to inappropriate information about gay people.  This is the key weapon for marriage equality opponents and why they have won every state ballot measure in the past: scare families that children in school will be taught about the evils of homosexuality.   And there was a two and a half week delay in rebutting the ads by the No on 8 side—a costly tactical misstep—allowing the lies to sink in.

Accordingly, polling taken today does not necessarily presage similar results in the future.  When our highly motivated opponents use their proven tactics of lies and exaggeration—and they certainly will—people could be influenced to change their minds.  And conservative religious leaders will continue to use their pulpits to hammer away at the one “sin” (ignoring all the others) and framing marriage in biblical terms.  The current rosy picture we are witnessing today could be quickly crushed.

On the bright side, the Prop 8 campaign was waged without any national leaders like Barack Obama and Colin Powell expressing support for marriage equality. Their recent pronouncements could make a substantial difference with those voters in Maryland who are soft on the issue and are not tied to deep religious convictions.

But it’s critical that the folks at Marylanders for Marriage Equality do not fall into the same trap that wrecked other states’ efforts.  They should not interpret these positive news developments and poll results as a juggernaut of support.  They cannot afford to take their eye off the prize. 

Fundraising and a solid ground game is crucial.  And we must engage and galvanize our own community to be part of the effort.  There should be no perception that we have this in the bag.  

But equally as important, these leaders should read that Prop 8 report, learn from past mistakes, and use that to formulate a blueprint for this campaign.  As American philosopher George Santayana wrote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Good things are happening now, but complacency can be a killer.

It's Never Too Late to Speak Out for our Rights

Former First Lady Laura Bush's recent revelation about her support for same-sex marriage on Larry King caused a bit of a stir. It wasn't a full-throated endorsement of marriage equality wrapped in a rainbow flag, but she was supportive, and she thinks same-sex marriage is inevitable. On the CNN broadcast she said:

"I think that we ought to definitely look at it and debate it. I think there are a lot of people who have trouble coming to terms with that because they see marriage as traditionally between a man and a woman, but I also know that when couples are committed to each other and love each other that they ought to have the same sort of rights that everyone has."

The blogosphere kicked into gear. Was this a change of heart for her? Or, did she always believed in marriage equality but was told to zip it for 8 years? Where was she when we needed her during the 2004 campaign when gays were trashed by her husband and his puppet master, Karl Rove?

These are all legitimate questions, to be sure. But when you are in a civil rights struggle, one cannot dictate timing. I agree with the response from Michael Cole, spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign: "When the right wing was using same-sex couples as election year pawns and the president calling for a cynical constitutional amendment to deny people rights, we would have welcomed support from the first lady. Nevertheless, her speaking out for marriage equality shows that more and more Americans realize all families need the same rights and protections."

And that's the point: the battle for LGBT rights is an evolution. When people eventually come around to a more progressive mindset and understand the meaning of equality, we should embrace their supportive positions and welcome them aboard the equality train. Because the reserved and likeable Mrs. Bush had a far more positive appeal around the country than her husband, her statements, even if late, will go a long way towards achieving our goal. It could influence other people to examine their own views on the subject. And if it pisses off right wing groups like Focus on the Family, even better.

Laura Bush's comments were the latest of a series of slow-moving but positive pronouncements by high profile individuals. When former Secretary of State and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Colin Powell did an about face on allowing openly gay people to serve in the military, the shift in his views was seismic.

Attitudes and circumstances have changed," said Powell. "Society is reflected in the military. It’s where we get our soldiers from.” Other generals and admirals, active and retired, now had the cover to "come out" in support. This momentum, plus President Obama's pledge to end "don't ask, don't tell" will finally lead to its repeal.

Yes, General Powell could have been more useful to our cause had he expressed the same sentiments in 1993 that could have prevented the needless discharges of 13,000 qualified members of our armed forces. But his voice is still potent and influential, and his reversal is most welcome, no matter how late.

This also applies to the world of sports—a hot bed of homophobia. Several gay professional athletes have come out after their playing days were over. Esera Tuaolo, a burly lineman for five NFL teams, revealed his sexual orientation and explained how fearful he was should his being gay had been known to his teammates.

Basketball player John Amaechi, who played in the NBA for four teams, also came out after his retirement and expressed similar thoughts. While Tuaolo's revelation in 2002 didn't generate much public reaction from his former teammates and opponents, Amaechi's disclosure in 2007 did. It brought to the surface such homophobes as former Orlando Magic player Tim Hardaway. In an anti-gay rant, Hardaway said, "You know, I hate gay people, so I let it be known. I don't like gay people and I don't like to be around gay people. I am homophobic. I don't like it. It shouldn't be in the world or in the United States."

But Amaechi's admission brought to light key supporters, such as Grant Hill. "The fact that John has done this, maybe it will give others the comfort or confidence to come out as well, whether they are playing or retiring," Hill said.

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban added, "When you do something that the whole world thinks is difficult and you stand up and just be who you are and take on that difficulty factor, you're an American hero no matter what," Cuban said. "That's what the American spirit's all about, going against the grain and standing up for who you are, even if it's not a popular position."

These words can affect, perhaps alter, the thinking of the public. A simple spark can often ignite a fire. Who knew, for example, that Grant Hill or Mark Cuban would be supportive of a gay former pro athlete? Who knows what impact Laura Bush's comments will have on society?

That is why it is critical in an evolving movement where education on the issues and increasing comfort levels are paramount for success. And that if high profile individuals make their pro-lgbt stances known, that is a big step forward—even if it's later than sooner.

www.SteveCharing.blogspot.com.