The Republicans' Biggest Nightmare

Still reeling from consecutive losses in the contest for the White House, the Republicans are setting themselves up for a third consecutive defeat.  That dismal reality for the GOP has the face of Donald Trump all over it.  #hocopolitics

Donald Trump rails against 'political correctness'

Back in August when Trump-mania started to take hold, I opined how his candidacy would affect the rest of the race up until the first votes for the caucuses and primaries are cast in February 2016.   Few thought that Trump and his blustery showmanship will prevail and he would vanish like other flavors-of-the-month have done previously.   I said then and I will repeat: Trump is not going anywhere voluntarily unless he can get knocked off the pedestal he has stood since he first announced his candidacy. 

Political numbers guru Nate Silver noted that only 25 percent of the country identify as Republicans while Trump has garnered merely 25 percent of GOP voters (enough to currently top the leader board).  Silver’s inference is that Trump is not making sufficient inroads to worry Dems in the general election.  Should Trump be the nominee, he will muster far more than the 25 percent currently supporting him as most Republicans will galvanize behind him in the hope of defeating Hillary Clinton.

The Republicans are indeed worried, however, and with good reason.  This is due to the horrific possibility that Trump may end up being the party’s standard-bearer. 

The so-called base is fed up with the GOP that put forth John McCain whose inability to articulate a solution to an economic crisis without threatening to bomb a country and Mitt Romney whose opulence created a narrative that he is out of touch with ordinary Americans.  These nominees lost to an African-American with little Senate experience, who had alleged ties to some questionable figures and whose place of birth was constantly questioned.  And they did so twice.

Republicans, especially in the House and Senate, were so ticked at these outcomes that they would go way out of the way to derail as much of President Obama’s agenda.  Though many of these lame efforts, such as repealing the Affordable Care Act over 40 times and shutting down the federal government reflected the GOP’s petulance, Obama’s creativity and the use of executive orders—a tactic that had been employed by presidents of both parties in the past—enabled him to secure significant accomplishments for the country and his legacy.

Following Romney’s defeat, the Republican establishment performed an “autopsy” in an effort to end the two-cycle presidential defeats.  They surmised that for the Republican Party to regain control of the federal government, they will have to broaden their reach, recognize the changing demographics and expand their base outside the tea party crowd.

To do so would mean the party would have to woo African-Americans, Latinos and women and would, in the process, gain much needed independent voters who comprise the fastest growing bloc.  This would certainly serve the Republicans well in swing states.

Not so fast: Donald Trump is single-handedly undermining that effort in a big and loud way.  Starting off with his assault on Mexicans as rapists, his determination to build a “nice” wall at the Mexican government’s expense and deport over 11 million undocumented immigrants, he turned off Hispanics big time.  Trump’s misogynous verbal shots at Fox News reporter Megyn Kelly and his adolescent barb directed at Carly Fiorina’s face certainly didn’t help with women.

Trump’s call for surveillance of Syrian refugees and certain mosques and a national registry of Syrian refugees.  Adding to that was his blatant lie that he witnessed thousands of Muslims in Jersey City rejoicing at the attacks on 9/11. This anti-Muslim rhetoric likely failed to win over independents.

Then there was the recent incident  in Birmingham, Ala. in which a Black Lives Matter protester was roughed up and forcibly ejected from a Trump rally and the candidate going on record supporting such actions.  African-Americans thinking about joining the GOP now?  Highly unlikely.

With all these episodes and  likely more on the way, the GOP establishment is squirming big time.  Trump’s supporters who have kept him on top in the polls except for a brief love affair with Dr. Carson, consist of the angry folks who adore Trump’s bullying style.  

My guess is that most of his supporters prefer that the U.S. be a Christian country consisting solely of white, native-born, non-Hispanic, heterosexual, anti-refugee, gun-toting, pro-life but at the same time pro-death penalty, misogynistic, climate change deniers, and military hawks who either have not served in the armed forces or would oppose a draft to force their sons and daughters into combat. They intently hate Obama and deny his record of accomplishments.  Trump answers their bell.

The trouble is, the above profile could match most of the GOP contenders’ core supporters.  It explains, perhaps, that Trump’s rivals are loath to criticize him forcefully lest they be on the receiving end of his flame-throwing.  He won’t hesitate to unleash his venom.  Ask Ben Carson.

This approach is effective for primaries but suicidal for the general.  Democrats should use Trump’s bombast whether he is the ultimate nominee or not.  By Trump’s rivals’ relative silence in criticizing him (except for a recent Kasich commercial), Democratic strategists should use Trump’s words and paint the whole Republican Party with them.  Their silence equals acquiescence. 

Right now, Trump is the Republicans’ biggest nightmare and no one in the party knows how to deal with it.

How Will the Obama-Romney Brawl Play Out?

Courtesy of Dan Pearce, myfantastic.escape.com

I thought the gloves would come off around September between President Barack Obama and the Republican presumptive nominee Mitt Romney.  With so much at stake riding on the outcome of this election, the pugilism from both campaigns began in earnest in late spring. 

For his part, Romney has done nothing but attack Obama since the GOP primary season.  In fact, all his Republican competitors did.  That’s what you do when you try to unseat an incumbent.  It’s perfectly reasonable to do so and backed by the Supreme Court’s decision on the Citizens United case, the Romney camp will have all the money in the world to inundate the air waves with negative ads.

Team Obama is not pussy-footing around either.  They are well aware that the unemployment numbers have been stubborn, and although the Republican-controlled Congress failed to act on a jobs bill, the sluggish recovery and high unemployment will be laid upon Obama’s doorstep that would ordinarily spell disaster for an incumbent.  Remember, it’s the economy stupid!

Realizing that axiom, the Obama folks have aimed their sights on Romney to make this a choice between not only the direction of the country but also who is better suited to run it.  Fortunately for Team Obama, he has a weak opponent that few feel excited about and whose baggage from Bain Capital, his record as governor of Massachusetts, and his head-scratching refusal to release more than one year’s tax returns provides a terrific target to exploit.

Most national polls reveal a virtual dead heat.  There has been very little variation in the national surveys and little movement is expected until the conventions and ultimately the presidential debates.  It seems that most people have already solidified their choices; those who haven’t probably are not focused on the election yet and many of those may not vote at all.

The country is so divided by red and blue that national campaigns don’t exist anymore. Since the Electoral College decides presidential contests, the election will be won not by national totals but by a handful of venues that are termed “battleground” states.  They include such prizes as Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

You will see the candidates spend more time and advertising dollars in those states and perhaps a few others than anywhere else.  They are the targets, and that’s where this contest will be decided.

Obama can count on his consistent likeability among voters, including the coveted “independent” segment of the electorate.  Those who have paid attention can see the remnants of gridlock and divided government, and depending if either he or Congress will be blamed for this inertia that alone could decide the outcome.

With surprisingly so few partisans showing the love for Romney, it has been clear from the outset that the election will be defined as Obama vs. the anti-Obama.  Romney’s negatives are too high at this stage to explain why there is a dead heat.  His support is more about getting Obama out of office than getting Romney into it.

Obama is on shaky ground now.  The economy could falter, setting off higher unemployment and stall the fragile recovery.  It can even trigger another recession.  The drought that is gripping much of the nation most likely will have an impact on the economy including gas prices, but when?  Though he obviously should not be blamed for this natural phenomenon, a faulty economy is his to own.

Moreover, economic destabilization in European countries can affect ours—another factor beyond anyone’s control.

Then there are international tensions that could pop up between now and November which could affect voters’ preferences.  Usually the population rallies around a president during an international crisis.  But those rules may not be in play anymore.

Romney is banking on the Obama haters to propel his candidacy, and there are lots of them.  The hatred towards the president began during the 2008 campaign and continued in earnest the night of his inauguration and it hasn’t subsided.  Even the major victory in the war on terrorism—the killing of Osama bin Laden, once considered public enemy number one—failed to generate praise from the opposition.

Then there is “Obamacare”—the defining piece of legislation that galvanized the Republican base and the Tea Party.  Unfortunately for Romney, this law was patterned after his own Massachusetts version rendering him ineffective in his criticism of it.

Romney is also saddled by his experience at Bain, which is relevant since his business experience is used as the rationale for unseating the president.  His refusal so far to release prior tax returns will likely turn off swing voters as he will be perceived as hiding something.  People don’t like that.

For the country in general, this is a pivotal election.  For LGBT folks in particular, there is also much at stake.  Obama was successful on most of the large initiatives: he ended “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” ordered hospitals receiving federal funds to allow visitation by members of same-sex couples, signed a comprehensive hate crimes bill into law, publicly supported marriage equality, and appointed more LGBT individuals to key positions than any previous president.  And the Justice Department ceased defending the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in several court challenges.

Romney threatened to reverse those victories.  With a potential control of both chambers going to Republicans, that could be accomplished more easily.  Keep that in mind.

The remainder of the campaign will be a big-time brawl, so brace yourself for the ugliness that will ensue.  The outcome, like an evenly matched prize fight, may not be clear until the final bell.  We just can’t have judges deciding it—again.

2012: Not for the Faint of Heart

The confetti from New Year’s Eve has long been swept up, and as we open our new 2012 calendars—the ones that charities routinely send us—we notice that each month contains a majestic photo of an exquisite landscape from around the U.S. It’s nice but the political landscape nationally and here in Maryland promises to be anything but serene and beautiful. Rather we should brace ourselves because calendar year 2012 is going to be ugly.

Bruising Presidential Campaign

We are less than ten months away from either re-electing Barack Obama or we will decide that his opponent should reside in the White House for the next four years. And that opponent, barring a miracle, will be Mitt Romney.

Based on the tried and true fundamentals; i.e. ability to raise money, organization and name recognition, needed to carry out such a campaign, it would be a major surprise if anyone but Mitt Romney emerges as Obama’s foe. Assuming no credible third party candidate surfaces leaving the stage to the two principals, this campaign will be tantamount to extreme cage fighting.

The Republican faithful will hold their noses and nominate the former Massachusetts governor. His strength: the myth that he fostered that he is the only candidate who is “electable” against Obama whom the GOP loathes.

Whether he possesses sufficient true conservative values or not, Romney is the darling of the so-called establishment. And as the Tea Party’s influence wanes, the establishment should win out. The ultimate motivation will be to defeat Obama, and Republican dogma may have to take a back seat. But in an effort to shore up his conservative bona fides, expect more anti-LGBT salvos from Romney especially his desire for a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman.

Because of the Supreme Court’s ruling that opens the door to unlimited campaign contributions that can be made to Political Action Committees (PAC), both opponents will have the cash to slug it out big time. Contributors to these PACs can remain anonymous and they will be completely legal if the PACs do not coordinate with the official campaign. We witnessed the effects of PAC money when Romney’s PAC obliterated his one-time feared opponent, Newt Gingrich in Iowa.

For his part, Obama has the resources (including PACs) to counter Romney and the assaults from his PACs. Team Obama has already made it clear that they want this election to be a choice between two candidates and not a referendum of the past four years. In other words, they will surely run a negative campaign against the presumed nominee, Romney. And if history has taught us anything, the Republicans will stop at nothing to use smear and fear to win elections.

The back-and-forth will be strident and personal, so get used to the muck.

Do or Die in Annapolis

As scenic as Annapolis is as a city, the 430^th Legislative Session of the Maryland General Assembly that had just begun promises to be unsightly. While the state’s budget deficit will highlight the session, marriage equality and gender identity protections will be on the docket.

Marriage equality advocates were short by a couple of votes in the House of Delegates last year following passage in the Senate. A new organization—Marylanders for Marriage Equality—is going to lead the fight this time around. It is comprised of the ACLU of Maryland, Human Rights Campaign, Progressive Maryland, SEIU 1199, NAACP — Baltimore Chapter, National Black Justice Coalition, Family Equality Council, PFLAG, Jewish Community Relations Council, Maryland Faith for Equality, Maryland NOW, Catholics for Equality and the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force.

The coalition is building a statewide grassroots organization—which includes weekly phone banks, post card drops, and letter-writing campaigns—to ensure state legislators hear from their constituents.

In addition, they have produced videos consisting of elected officials and entertainers in an attempt to win over Marylanders to pressure lawmakers to pass the bill and to hold off a guaranteed referendum battle should the bill pass and be signed into law. And they have the support of Governor O’Malley who made passage a legislative priority and promised to be more visible during the debate.

Should the bill be petitioned to referendum, the ongoing battle will be discordant and emotional. Will Marylanders for Marriage Equality come up with enough resources to fend it off? That’s the multi-million dollar question.

It is almost do or die, however, for the coalition to come through this session. In no way would the issue of same-sex marriage be taken up next year in the legislature or in 2014 as lawmakers are loathe to run with a hot button issue such as this on a ballot. Should the law pass this year and the referendum to defeat it holds up, it would require a court action, such as what’s happening on California’s Prop 8 situation, to overturn the referendum results. And there would be a lot of finger-pointing as well.

The gender identity non-discrimination bill will also cause a stir in the legislature. It passed the House last session but because of maneuvering by Senate President Thomas V. “Mike” Miller, it failed to come up for a vote in the Senate. Last time, “public accommodations” were struck from the language to improve its chances of passage. This time it is expected to be included.

But if a “public accommodations” provision is stripped as was the case last year and more recently in Massachusetts, some in the local transgender community will oppose the bill—a controversy that will also contribute to the foul political climate. In 2011 transgender activists were up in arms over the stripped provision banning discrimination against transgender persons in the area of public accommodations and made that opposition clear to lawmakers.

Nonetheless, like marriage equality, the gender identity measure has some momentum behind it. The worldwide video of a beating of a trans-woman in a local McDonalds underscored the need for legal protections for transgender individuals. Moreover, a legislative victory in Howard County recently occurred, which joined Baltimore City and Montgomery County as jurisdictions that have comprehensive protections in place. An additional jurisdiction in Maryland is poised to enact similar protections. These should help gain a statewide law.

With the Dream Act and the Marriage bill expected to be on the 2012 ballot, it is questionable if opponents of gender identity protections will follow that route. Regardless, advocates, who are led by a new organization, Gender Rights Maryland, must be ready for the potential onslaught.

Whether it is the national presidential campaign or the expected battles in Maryland, the landscape will not be like those portrayed on calendars.